Esqueça narrativas: o sucesso de Lula se deve a FHC (e outros)

O Brasil melhorou

Você conhece Belíndia?

Belíndia é um país fictício, criado pelo economista Edmar Bacha. Segundo ele, o Brasil é Belíndia: uma mistura de Bélgica com a Índia.

Lar de pampas, serras, um extenso litoral, e da deliciosa jabuticaba, Belíndia é marcada por sua desigualdade: vários grupos de interesse conseguem capturar o Estado e obtêm benefícios, gastos e privilégios para si, às custas de toda a população.

O resultado é que, em Belíndia, há impostos e leis trabalhistas belgas, com realidade social indiana.

 

 

Há mais de duas décadas, Belíndia vem mudando. Desde sua redemocratização, em 1985, todos os indicadores do país melhoraram muito.

Habitat de ideias, digamos, velhas – ou, nas palavras de Millôr Fernandes, aposentadas -, aquela nação, ainda que por vias tortas, parecia evoluir.

Foi na década passada, porém, que Belíndia se inverteu: a renda dos mais pobres passou a crescer muito mais rapidamente que a renda dos mais ricos.

O governo de então tomou para si essa conquista, como se fosse sua obra. Será mesmo?

A eterna discussão

FHC e Lula: é quase impossível falar de um sem falar do outro. Ambos dominaram o cenário político na década de 90 e início dos anos 2000.

O primeiro foi eleito num contexto de estabilização e fim da hiperinflação. Seus 8 anos de mandato foram dedicados a profundas reformas, correções de distorções e modernização da economia brasileira.

O segundo herdou um país estabilizado, com bastante capacidade ociosa e espaço para crescer.

 

 

É verdade que, na maioria dos indicadores que se olhe, Lula teve um desempenho melhor que FHC. Muitos autores tentam explicar esse fenômeno. Carrasco, Mello e Duarte argumentam que, ainda que tenha se saído melhor, o governo Lula entregou resultados aquém dos pares brasileiros. A conclusão dos autores é:

“O Brasil, em relação ao melhor grupo de comparação: 1) cresceu, investiu e poupou menos; 2) recebeu menos investimento estrangeiro direto e adicionou menos valor na indústria; 3) teve mais inflação; 4) perdeu competitividade e produtividade, avançou menos em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento e piorou a qualidade regulatória; 5) foi pior ou igual em quase todos os setores importantes; 6) a distribuição de renda, a fração de pobres, e a subnutrição caíram em linha ou um pouco menos; 7) a escolaridade avançou menos, a despeito de maiores gastos; 8) a saúde andou em linha. Fomos melhor no mercado de trabalho, onde avançamos na margem mais fácil: colocar as pessoas para trabalhar. Em suma, o Brasil avançou, mas poderia ter avançado muito mais. Neste sentido a década foi perdida.”

Este artigo se propõe a comparar alguns indicadores do governo Lula e FHC, e tentar explicar o melhor desempenho do petista.

De antemão, saiba o leitor que Lula não fez nenhuma mágica ou adotou alguma política inovadora: seus resultados são frutos da manutenção e administração daquilo que Fernando Henrique fez e deixou de herança.

Política fiscal

De fato, os primeiros anos de FHC começaram com uma política fiscal frouxa. O primeiro superávit primário (que é a economia do governo para pagar os juros da dívida) mais robusto só foi atingido em 1999, após a implantação do Tripé Macroeconômico (baseado em câmbio flexível, metas para inflação e metas para superávit primário).

Lula se comprometeu, com a chamada Carta ao Povo Brasileiroa manter a mesma política econômica do governo FHC. Diz ele, na carta:

“Vamos preservar o superávit primário o quanto for necessário para impedir que a dívida interna aumente e destrua a confiança na capacidade do governo de honrar os seus compromissos. (…) A estabilidade, o controle das contas públicas e da inflação são hoje um patrimônio de todos os brasileiros.”

 

 

Sob a batuta do ex-ministro da Fazenda, Antonio Palocci, o governo promoveu um expressivo aumento do primário. A média de resultado primário de Lula (2,2% do PIB) foi mais que o dobro da média de Fernando Henrique (1,09%).

À época, inclusive, discutia-se a atual PEC do teto de gastos – embora tal ideia tenha sido rechaçada pela então ministra-chefe da Casa Civil, Dilma Rousseff.

O fortalecimento do superávit primário promoveu forte redução da relação dívida/PIB, garantindo que o Estado brasileiro estaria em dia com suas obrigações.

A política fiscal mais sólida e robusta foi quem permitiu uma agenda social maior e mais abrangente. Simplesmente não existem programas sociais quando o Estado é incapaz de pagá-los.

Inflação

Ainda no trecho supracitado de sua carta, Lula se compromete com o controle da inflação.

Para tanto, escolheu Henrique Meirelles – atual ministro da Fazenda – para presidir o BC. Meirelles, à época, era deputado eleito pelo PSDB e ex-presidente do BankBoston.

Veja no gráfico abaixo: ele mostra o centro da meta de inflação (linha preta sólida), o teto da meta (linha preta pontilhada), e a inflação observada ano a ano. Note como Meirelles foi mais tenaz com a meta de inflação: cumpriu-a mais vezes.

 

 

Não é para menos: Meirelles defendia abertamente a política de seu antecessor – Armínio Fraga – e era 100% alinhado ao Tripé.

Esse maior controle da inflação se deve ao aumento de juros promovido ainda no início do governo petista – algo absolutamente criticado pelo PT, sob o argumento de “beneficiar os rentistas”.

A Selic chegou a 26,5% em Fevereiro de 2003. Posteriormente, a taxa foi reduzida, mas voltou a ser elevada já em 2004.

Para além disso, Meirelles também deu início a um programa de acumulação de reservas cambiais por parte do BC, para garantir uma espécie de “seguro” contra eventuais crises dessa natureza.

Crescimento e pobreza

Quando comparamos os dois governos, é facilmente observado que o crescimento se acelerou no governo Lula. Como resultado, a pobreza, medida em % da população abaixo da linha de pobreza internacional, caiu barbaramente.

Passamos de quase 16,5% da população total abaixo da linha da pobreza, em 1994, para menos de 6%, em 2010.

 

 

O curioso, entretanto, é notar que tal queda já vinha sendo anunciada ainda no governo tucano. Ademais, a interpretação dos dados muda, quando o Brasil é confrontado com o resto do mundo.

Como bem sabe o leitornão é de hoje que o mundo vem se tornando mais rico. Lula surfou uma onda de rápido crescimento mundial e redução acelerada da pobreza; FHC, por sua vez, não teve tanta sorte.

No mundo, a pobreza caiu a menos da metade: de 35% para 16%.

Quanto ao crescimento, observa-se também forte aceleração, como evidenciado pelos gráficos abaixo.

 

 

No que tange a produtividade, nosso crescimento médio passou de 0,5%, com FHC, para algo pouco abaixo de 2%, com Lula.

Já no que se refere ao crescimento do PIB per capita, passamos de 0,9% ao ano para cerca de 2,85% ao ano.

Interessante, todavia, é notar como, mesmo com esse forte aumento da taxa de crescimento, o Brasil ainda ficou no grupo dos países que menos cresceram, entre os emergentes.

O que se percebe, logo, é que não fomos “brilhantes”; pelo contrário: ficamos abaixo da mediana dos nossos pares.

Desigualdade

É verdade que no período de 2003 a 2010, a desigualdade brasileira, medida pelo índice de Gini, caiu bastante. Isso se deve a um motivo muito simples: a renda dos mais pobres passou a crescer de maneira muito mais rápida que a renda dos mais ricos.

Como dito no início deste texto, Belíndia se inverteu: perceba, no gráfico abaixo, como a renda dos mais pobres passou a crescer a taxas indianas, enquanto a renda dos mais ricos, a taxas belgas.

Note como o crescimento da renda dos 5% mais pobres foi perto de 2x o crescimento da renda dos 5% mais ricos.

 

 

A coisa muda de figura quando colocamos esses números em perspectiva: no governo FHC, a desigualdade também caiu, num contexto em que ela subia no resto da América Latina. Já no governo Lula, ela caiu em linha com o resto dos nossos vizinhos.

Muito dessa queda brasileira veio, como será explicado a seguir, dos ganhos educacionais, bem como do crescimento mais acelerado – que também será destrinchado neste texto. Os programas sociais – como o Bolsa Família, que veio do Bolsa Escola, criado no governo tucano – também tiveram sua parcela de contribuição.

 

 

Causas

O que pode explicar esse melhor desempenho do governo Lula na maioria dos indicadores? Teria o petista passado medidas “mágicas” que seu antecessor sequer cogitou? Obviamente, não.

A resposta está nas reformas estruturais e na agenda de política econômica anterior à chegada de Lula. A seguir, destrinchamos alguns pontos.

Educação

Segundo especialistas, uma das grandes mudanças estruturais responsáveis pelo maior crescimento e redução da pobreza e desigualdade, no último trio de décadas, foi a expansão da educação.

De fato, essa agenda de universalização começa ainda na década de 90, dois anos após a promulgação da Constituição de 1988, sob o governo Collor.

Veja o gráfico abaixo. Ele mostra o maior nível educacional atingido pela população em idade ativa (entre 15 e 64 anos) ao longo do tempo. Note a expressiva redução no percentual da nossa população em idade ativa que não contava com instrução: de 20% para menos de 7%. Junto com uma forte expansão do ensino secundário.

Claramente, a força de trabalho brasileira se tornou mais qualificada, graças à democratização do ensino, que reduziu a chamada desigualdade educacional.

 

 

Estudos revelam que essa redução da desigualdade educacional contribuiu, em termos de mercado de trabalho, para uma diminuição de cerca de 40% na desigualdade. Afinal, hoje já são sabidos os efeitos da educação sobre a renda futura dos alunos, especialmente quando estes têm aulas com bons professores.

Abertura comercial

O processo de abertura comercial da economia brasileira começou um pouco antes de FHC; mais precisamente, no governo Collor.

O país não passou por uma grande abertura; pelo contrário: ela foi bem modesta. Ainda assim, os benefícios, em termos de maior crescimento da produtividade, principalmente, são amplamente documentados.

Uma das causas do baixo crescimento brasileiro é, justamente, nosso auto-embargo. Com a queda das tarifas – que saíram de, em média, 50% em 1989 e foram para 14%, em 1994 – e a diminuição das barreiras não-tarifárias (como proibição de produtos, regimes especiais, restrições técnicas, etc), o Brasil pôde experimentar maiores ganhos de eficiência por toda a sua economia.

 

 

Talvez o setor que mais bem represente isso seja o setor agrícola. Com a abertura, muitas empresas quebraram; as mais eficientes, porém, sobreviveram e, com o maior acesso a melhores e mais baratos insumos e bens de capital, puderam se tornar mais produtivas e cresceram.

A média de crescimento da PTF (produtividade total dos fatores) no período de 1990 (ano que, aqui, marcamos como “início da abertura”) até 2010 foi de 2,7%, contra 1,4% no período 1961-1990. Não à toa, a produtividade do setor agrícola brasileiro se tornou referência internacional: desde 1992, fomos o 11º onde a PTF da agricultura mais cresceu, de acordo com dados do US Department of Agriculture.

 

 

Cenário externo favorável

Há pouco, quando analisamos o crescimento da renda per capita, notamos que, realmente, o Brasil se saiu melhor com Lula. Mas lembre o leitor, do gráfico que trata desse tema, que os países emergentes também se saíram melhor ao longo do governo do petista.

Isso porque, ao longo da década de 2000, o mundo se tornou um lugar muito mais amigável para países emergentes. Perceba, pelo gráfico abaixo, como os termos de troca brasileiros (que são, grosso modo, a razão entre os preços de tudo que vendemos ao exterior e os preços de tudo que importamos de fora) experimentaram ganhos consistentes sob o governo petista, enquanto, no governo tucano, a deterioração foi marcante.

 

 

Esse movimento dos termos de troca pode ser explicado pela entrada da China na OMC, em 2001. O crescimento mais acelerado chinês – que, a partir de então, estaria conectado ao resto do globo – gerou uma grande demanda pelos produtos que exportamos, aumentando seus preços.

A isso, o leitor já deve saber, deu-se o nome de super-ciclo das commodities. 

Esse “super-ciclo” ajudou a financiar nosso crescimento, puxado por expansão da chamada “absorção doméstica” (soma de consumo do governo, consumo das famílias e investimento) sem deteriorar tanto nossas contas externas.

Demografia

A demografia teve papel importante no maior crescimento dos 8 anos de Lula. Foi sob seu governo que o Brasil viveu o auge do chamado bônus demográfico – uma espécie de “janela de oportunidade”, por se tratar de momento único na história demográfica de um país, quando a taxa de fecundidade e a taxa de mortalidade caem expressivamente.

O resultado é uma maior entrada de pessoas no mercado de trabalho e uma maior proporção de pessoas em idade de trabalhar – o que é capturado pela menor razão de dependência, como pode ser visto abaixo.

 

 

Esse momento demográfico beneficia o crescimento pelo simples fato de que há mais pessoas para trabalhar, e menos pessoas que dependem delas – idosos e crianças.

Observe como nossa razão de dependência vem caindo ano após ano; algo que se inverterá, no futuro, e que foi discutido aqui.

Crédito

Já documentamos, em outra oportunidade, o papel do crédito na economia brasileira.

Sob Lula, houve forte expansão da relação crédito/PIB: ela nada menos do que dobrou. Com certas reformas realizadas em seu governo – como a criação do crédito consignado, por exemplo -, houve amplo espaço para aumento das concessões de empréstimos.

Como o ex-presidente assumiu o país com elevada capacidade ociosa e alto desemprego, era possível promover crescimento “apenas” fornecendo demanda.

Isso porque os galpões estão vazios e as pessoas, desempregadas. Nesse caso, é possível crescer apenas incorporando mão de obra, isto é: contratando mais pessoas.

Quando, entretanto, o desemprego chega no piso e as fábricas estão produzindo no limite de sua capacidade, tal modelo torna-se inviável: como não há a possibilidade de contratar mais gente, é preciso expandir o produto por trabalhador – esse assunto, porém, fica para outro artigo.

Esse modelo de crescimento, como explicado pelo economista Otaviano Canuto, só é passível de reprodução uma única vez. Quando muda-se o patamar de crédito e endividamento privado de uma economia, completa-se o ciclo creditício e não mais é possível repeti-lo; a menos, é claro, que dobremos a razão crédito/PIB novamente – algo improvável.

 

 

Reformas passadas

Além das reformas já citadas e explicadas neste texto, é importante destacar o grande conjunto de mudanças estruturais promovidas no governo FHC, que completaram sua maturação ao longo do governo Lula.

O governo tucano promoveu uma ampla rodada de privatizações – cujos benefícios são bem conhecidos e serão objeto de texto futuro -, a liberalização de mercados e a quebra de monopólios – o exemplo clássico é a Lei do Petróleo, de 1997, que quebrou o monopólio da Petrobrás no setor.

Ainda deu continuidade à abertura comercial que havia sido iniciada por Collor e promoveu uma pequena reforma trabalhista – criação do banco de horas, por exemplo.

Vale citar, também, o saneamento promovido no sistema financeiro, bem como a federalização da dívida dos estados e a criação da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal.

Naquela época, diga-se, dizia-se que o Brasil caminhava em direção à normalidade, que seria a elaboração tradicional de política econômica no mundo todo. Os esoterismos e políticas heterodoxas (leia-se: alternativas) haviam sido deixados de lado em favor do estado da arte da ortodoxia econômica.

Resultado: ganhos de produtividade

O resultado de tudo anteriormente citado – a grande expansão do crédito, a maturação das reformas de governos anteriores, a demografia favorável, entre outros motivos – foi um maior crescimento da economia brasileira, que foi puxado, principalmente, por crescimento da mão de obra empregada – e isso pode ser observado pela redução expressiva na taxa de desemprego -, bem como por ganhos na chamada Produtividade Total dos Fatores (PTF), que é, grosso modo, uma medida de produtividade e eficiência “geral” da economia.

 

 

 

Observe, pelo gráfico e tabela acima, como a PTF passou a contribuir mais para o crescimento do PIB: de 0,7 p.p. para 1,6 p.p., ou seja, mais que o dobro.

O trabalho também mais do que dobrou sua contribuição – e tais motivos foram explicados ao longo deste texto.

Conclusão

Apesar das narrativas, é importante que se tenha em mente o seguinte: o ex-presidente Lula não promoveu nenhum “milagre”, como alguns querem nos fazer crer.

O petista limitou-se a dar continuidade à mesma política econômica de FHC. E, como explicado aqui, foi o abandono de tais políticas que plantou as sementes da crise de hoje.

O maior crescimento do período de 2003 a 2010, bem como suas importantes e positivas consequências – como redução da pobreza e da desigualdade – são uma conquista de vários governos, não apenas do governo Lula.

Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco e Fernando Henrique Cardoso tiveram papel crucial na construção do palco que permitiria maior expansão da economia nos anos Lula.

O leitor, ao fim e ao cabo, está munido contra eventuais oportunistas que tentem tomar para si tais resultados.

Comments

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54 comentários em “Esqueça narrativas: o sucesso de Lula se deve a FHC (e outros)

  • 02/04/2017 em 10:46 am
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    Diante de tudo que foi citado aí, o Lula foi muito melhor do que o FHC. Só lembrando ainda que ele ampliou o número de universidades, criou inúmeros institutos e criou o PROUNI
    Diante de tudo isso LULA PRESIDENTE.

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